As we get closer to Friday, the severe weather risk remains high as our next storm system moves in. The Severe Prediction Center has already placed all of Central Texas in a slight risk for severe weather. This area will be fine tuned as we get closer to Friday but the models have not changed much at all so I would not expect the slight risk to change much either. The timing will be Friday afternoon from around 3 Pm through Friday night. Storms are expected to fire just to our west along the dry line and push eastward. One thing that may hinder initial development with be low clouds that may persist into the afternoon. However, if we can get rid of those clouds and see lots of sunshine, the severe weather threat would go way up.

The image above shows the percentage chance for severe weather on Friday. We currently sit in 30% but I bet we see that number go higher. In fact, after looking at the latest model data, I would not be surprised to see us upgraded to a moderate risk. I believe if that happens, it would be the first moderate risk of the season. When that happens, it means there is an over 50% chance of seeing severe weather in a given area. As for Friday, the main threats will be large hail, strong winds, and isolated tornadoes. The tornado threat will really depend on if we see the sun in the afternoon and we warm up. Either way, Friday is going to be a busy weather day so stay tuned! — First Alert Meteorologist Conley Isom

As we say good bye to March and head into April, our severe weather season begins to pick up. So far we have seen a few bad weather days but nothing too bad. One thing you might of noticed is the number of warnings has been much lower. That is because the hail size criteria for a warning to be issued went from .75″ to 1.00″.  This will lead to less warnings on storms that are just strong and not severe.

Our computer models have been very consistent with our next storm system moving in Friday. There are a lot of ingredients coming together that point to a good chance for severe weather. One will be the warmer temperatures. We are going to see lots of sunshine this week and highs climbing into the 80s. The warmer it is, the more unstable the air becomes. Two will be a surge of moisture coming up from the coast, leading to dew points in the 60s. Three will be lot of upper level energy, which basically means this storm system will be very strong. The main threats right now look to be large hail and gusty winds but tornadoes cannot be ruled out. We will have a better idea over the coming days the exact details so stay tuned! — First Alert Meteorologist Conley Isom

We are still forecasting the chance for freezing temperatures on Saturday morning. From the image above, the average last freeze for Waco/Temple/Killeen is about March 11th. so this one is coming a little late in the season. However, it usually freezes once or twice before Easter and it is a good idea to wait until then to start planting flowers. The latest freeze on record was on April 15th, 1983 and that was one of the coldest winters for Central Texas.

I would go ahead and make plans to protect any tender plants for Sunday morning or move them inside. With high pressure building in, we may need to watch out for Monday morning as well, especially for the eastern areas along I-45. The good news is this cold snap won’t last and we will be back into the 70s before you know it. — First Alert Meteorologist Conley Isom

Over the weekend, temperatures climbed to 80 degrees and it felt like spring had sprung. However, you should know with Texas weather, it can always change. Keep in mind that Spring does not officially begin until March 20th and the average last freeze for Central Texas is March 11th. So it can still get cold in March.

With that in mind, here is what we are tracking. A strong cold front is expected to sweep through Saturday morning bringing with a chance for rain and colder air. How cold? One computer model has us at 35 degrees Sunday morning, and even colder temperatures west of I-35. So yes, there is a chance we could see a light freeze across the western parts of Central Texas. I don’t think this will be a bad freeze but any kind of plant that is sensitive to cold weather will need to be protected. — First Alert Meteorologist Conley Isom

We are about to enter the spring season and that is when severe weather becomes more of a concern. Our next storm system will bring us thunderstorms Monday afternoon but the question still remains on how strong they will be. Looking over the latest data, we have some of the ingredients in place for severe weather but not everything. We will likely see scattered showers and cloudy skies through the day, which will limit daytime heating and keep the air more stable. As the best energy arrives in the afternoon, there is no doubt we will see storms develop but I doubt we will see that many turn severe. Some hail and gusty winds are the main threats with the stronger cells.

The statement we keep saying with this event is that it is only March, meaning if this same pattern happens in May, the severe threat would be much greater. I would still stay tuned and keep an eye on the radar through the afternoon. We will be tracking any storms very carefully. — First Alert Meteorologist Conley Isom