Courtesy of NWS in Fort Worth

We have hinted at this for several days now and as we get closer to this weather event, things are becoming a little clearer. However, let me warn you that the models may change in the next 24-48 hours and any slight chance could have a big impact on our weather. The main cause for this event is an area of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere that we have been tracking since the weekend. It is expected to move eastward into the state on Tuesday and could lead to a big winter event for west Texas. As the system gets closer to Central Texas, we will see widespread showers develop and we could be in store for lots of rain, on the order of 1-2 inches. By Wednesday morning, the core of the system will be move northwest of Waco/Temple/Killeen, crossing the DFW area before lifting northeast out of the state. If this path holds true, then there is a chance to see a winter mix in the far western and northwestern counties. This would include San Saba, Goldthwaite, Hamiton, and Meridian. As we have stated before and on air, the surface temperatures will likely be above freezing to nothing will stick and no travel impacts are expected. Everything should clear out by late Wednesday but it will remain cold the rest of the week.

One thing to note is that a lot of this depends on the track of the storm system. The coldest air will be right under the core and to the northwest of the core. This is why the northwest counties have the better shot at wintry precipitation. However, if the track happens to go farther south, the line for sleet and snow would come a little closer to the I-35 corridor. As the new models come in, we will be analyzing them closely and will let you know of any changes. Again, even if we see sleet or snow, it will not amount to much but it would be pretty to see. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Computer model showing the chance for winter weather to our west.

After beautiful weather over the Thanksgiving holiday, mother nature has sent us cold and wet weather as we go back to work and school. By Tuesday and Wednesday, we are tracking an upper level low pressure system that will be moving through the state. This will lead to more rain and cold temperatures. The tricky part comes in when we start to look at the chance for wintry precipitation like sleet or snow. Right now, our current thinking is that there is a slight chance for sleet and freezing rain west of I-35 overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This would include San Saba, Lampasas, Goldthwaite, Hamiltion, and Meridian. At this time, we do not expect to see this in Waco, Temple, or Killeen. No travel impacts are expected with surface temperatures likely to stay above freezing and the ground temperatures are way too warm. It is not even Winter yet! Everything depends on the track of the upper level low because under the core of the system will be the coldest air and best chance for wintry weather. Again, it is not expected to cause any travel delays or accumulations on the ground. You will want to stay tuned for more updates as the event gets closer. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Not only is the weather going to be perfect for Thanksgiving here in Central Texas, but pretty much anywhere you go around the state, the weather should be nice. The forecast calls for lots of sunshine, cool in the morning, and pleasant in the afternoon. I am glad it will be chilly Thanksgiving morning with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. The cooler weather helps put me in the holiday mood. So you could not of asked for a better forecast and we wish everyone a happy Turkey Day! — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

I have to admit that it has been nice with temperatures near 80 degrees this weekend but considering it is November, we should expect it to be cold. Get ready because the cold weather returns Monday as a cold front sweeps through Central Texas! Temperatures will likely hover in the 50s through most of the day on Monday but with winds howling over 20 mph from the northwest, those 50s will feel more like 40s. As skies clear out in the evening, temperatures will be dropping into the upper 30s by Tuesday morning for Waco/Temple/Killeen. However, our far western counties, including San Saba, Mills, Hamilton, and Burnet could see temperatures getting close to the freezing mark. There could also be patchy frost so take precautions now.

I am more worried that Wednesday morning could be a few degrees colder. We will have clear skies, high pressure close by, calm winds, and cold air already in place. These are all the ingredients for radiational cooling. Basically, this means that the heat of the day quickly escapes into space and temperatures drop towards the dew point, which measures the amount of moisture in the air. Since the air will be very dry, dew points will likely be in the low to mid 30s, which is where our temperatures could be Wednesday morning. We will be tracking this closely and stay tuned for updates. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Track for Ida

Ida has reminded us that it is still hurricane season and that it does not end until November 31st. This late season storm become a hurricane before making landfall in Central America and then weakened. Once the storm headed north back over open waters, Ida became a hurricane again and headed into the Central Gulf of Mexico. At one point, the winds were over 100 mph making it a category 2 storm. Now Ida is battering Alabama and the Florida Panhandle with rain, wind, and waves. The storm is expected to slowly turn eastward and could cause some major flooding problems across the southeast. Thankfully for us, Ida stayed well away because we still need more time to dry out from our wet October. Our weather looks to stay quiet until next weekend with the approach of our next storm system and cold front. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Average number of days per month with freezing temperatures.

Is it me or does it seem like this year has really flown by? I cannot believe we are already into November and that much closer to the holidays. After dealing with one of the wettest and coolest Octobers on record, this winter season could be an interesting one. We are in an El Nino weather pattern, that typically means more rain and cooler temperatures, just like we saw in October. So far it looks like November will start off quiet and dry. However, November is when things can get really cold across Central Texas. Here are some facts about freezing temperatures:

• Average first freeze is November 23rd
• Average last freeze is March 11th
• We typically see 30-35 days where the temperatures is 32 or below

Keep in mind, winter does not officially begin until December 21st and we will likely see ups and downs through the end of the year. I can remember going from a cold Christmas one year, to a warm one the next. You can never tell what mother nature will do. However, like we have talked about in previous posts, if the El Nino weather pattern holds through winter, we may have a slight higher chance for seeing snow/ice this season. What do you think? — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom