Soon to be Erika?

As we round out August and head into September, we are entering the peak of hurricane season. So far this season the U.S. has been lucky with Danny and Bill turning north along the east coast and Ana being ripped apart by the Caribbean islands. Tropical Storm Claudette was the only direct hit so far, and she was mainly a rain maker for parts of the southeast. The next name on the list is Erika and we may have her early this week. A nice tropical wave has been moving through the Atlantic, tracking westward. One day the disturbance looked good and then the next, it would look bad. As of Sunday morning, it looks like it is getting better organized and I feel if it can maintain the clouds and storms, it could become a depression on Monday and maybe Erika by Tuesday. Computer models are not picking up on this feature very well so I would only take there forecast with a grain of salt. If it makes it into the Caribbean, it might be something to watch for interests along the Gulf coast.

On a side note, August 29th is the 4th year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. Take a moment to remember those who were effected by this storm. –First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Courtesy of the NWS in Fort Worth

It looks like we are about to get a break from the triple digit heat. We are tracking a cold front that will be slowly moving into the area late Thursday. We have already seen some rain showers but more storms are expected in the afternoon as the front slides southward. The air behind this front is not really that cool but it is much drier. That dry air will help drop temperatures maybe into the upper 60s for overnight lows this weekend. That will feel nice! It will stay hot during the afternoons with highs in the 90s but at least it is not 100 degrees. The weather pattern is trying to change across the country so it might be a signal that the summer ridge of high pressure is beginning to lose its grip.  So far we are at 54 days of triple digit heat, which is the fourth most 100 degree days on record. Who is ready for Fall? – First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Forecast Track for TS Danny

We now have Danny, a tropical storm located just east of the Bahamas. Hurricane Hunters flew into the storm on Tuesday and found strong winds but no closed circulation. However, this morning, the circulation had formed and thus we have Tropical Storm Danny. The forecast calls for the storm to head northwest and then turn northward up the east coast. The main reason for this is the cold front coming into Texas on Thursday will help push Danny more northward. The question will be does the storm turn later or sooner? Sooner and the storm could hit Cape Cod farther up the coast. Later and it will likely hit North Carolina. Bottom line for us is that the storm will stay out of the Gulf of Mexico. You can get the latest on Danny by checking out our Tropical Tracker and we will have more updates through the week. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Next Tropical System???

Bill is no more and now we look back out in the Atlantic for our next possible tropical system. We do not have to look far as a tropical wave is causing some concern as it approaches the northeastern Caribbean. (It is the one circled in the image above.) The Hurricane Center has labeled it as Invest 92 and the hurricane hunters are planning to fly into on Tuesday afternoon. Right now, I would give this about a 30-40% chance of developing and even if it gets better organizes, it will likely do so very slowly. The environment around the wave is not that ideal but conditions are forecast to improve through the week. If this feature becomes a tropical storm, it will be given the name Danny. Remember, Claudette fromed on the west coast of Florida and hit the Florida panhandle. The computer models that do develop the storm take it into the Bahamas over the next few days, then up the east coast, possibly effecting the Carolina’s. For now, it looks like it will stay out of the Gulf of Mexico, which is good news. –First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Trailer home demolished.

It turned out to be an active weather day Sunday across Central Texas. We had several severe storms that produced strong winds, lightning, and heavy rain. The hardest hit area was in Hewitt, where numerous reports and photos shows significant wind damage. Estimated wind speeds were anywhere between 50 to 70 mph. Also, in the town of Rosebud, there was a trailer home that was completely destroyed. We want thank those who sent in their weather photos and storm reports. It is a big help during severe weather events. Feel free to email us your weather photos to weatherpics@kxxv.com.

Downburst winds from Sunday's storm.

So where did those strong winds come from? They are called downburst winds, or a microburst. When a strong storm begins to weaken and collapse, the air in the top part of the storm rushes downward towards the surface. Once it hits the ground, then it will spread out in all directions. Wind speeds can reach as high as 150 mph but with our storms, the winds were more likely around 60-70 mph. Sometimes the damage can be mistaken for tornado damage, but none of the storms were rotating and most of the damage is clumped together or blown in one direction. If it was a tornado, the debris field would be more scattered and in different directions. Even though it was not a tornado, this is a good example of what can happen with straight line winds. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Friday morning satellite imagery of Bill.

Hurricane Bill has weakened some this morning, but still a category 3 storm with winds up to 115 mph. He is tracking northwest at 18 mph and will continue to take more of a curve northward, then eventually northeast. Even though Bill will not strike the East coast, he will make his presence known. Large swells and waves are already beginning to affect the coast line and the public is being advised to stay out of the ocean due to dangerous rip currents. We will also likely see some beach erosion along the coast.

Besides Bill, the rest of the tropics are quiet, for now. We are tracking one tropical wave in the Atlantic that might develop next week close to the Bahamas. Some of the computer models are picking up on this but not all of them. The peak of hurricane season usually hits in September so I would expect more activity in the next several weeks. If the weather pattern holds the way it looks now, then the Gulf of Mexico might be spared from tropical activity. I am just glad Bill decided to turn north! — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

On Tuesday afternoon, a strong thunderstorm moved through the west side of Beaumont and produced a brief tornado. Usually with sea breeze type storms, tornadoes that develop are small and do not last long. However, if they hit a highly populated area, they can do some damage. This was the case today but luckily no one was seriously injured. The video above is courtesy of KBMT in Beaumont. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

All that is left of Ana is a tropical wave that is moving northwestward through the Caribbean islands. There is thunderstorm activity associated with the wave but the chance of it becoming a tropical system again is very, very slim. One thing to note, if by chance another tropical storm formed from what is left of of Ana, it would not be called Ana, it will be given a new name, which would be Danny. Talk about confusing!

An eye now appearing with Hurricane Bill.

Now on to hurricane Bill. As of this morning, he was under going an eye wall replacement cycle but I bet later today he will have a nice, sharp looking eye. Bill is a category 2 hurricane with winds around 100 mph. He is moving west northwest around 17 mph. The forecast calls for this motion to continue, followed by a more northward turn by the end of the week. Still looks like Bill will stay just off the East coast but some models are trying to trend west closer to the U.S. mainland. Unless the models change drastically, I agree that the storm will not make landfall on the east coast. However, the island of Bermuda could get hit hard. Everything else in the tropics is quiet for now, but the peak of hurricane season is September, so I bet we will have more storms to track very soon. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Tropical Storm Claudette is now a depression after making landfall southeast of Fort Walton Beach, Florida early Monday morning. Main threats from the storm now will be heavy rain across parts of southern Alabama. Claudette should be a nice reminder of how quickly tropical systems can develop in a very favorable environment. As for Tropical Depression Ana, she is struggling as she continues westward over the Caribbean islands. There has been a flare up of thunderstorm activity with the storm so the Hurricane Center will continue to post advisories on the storm. By weeks end, what is left of Ana will move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and will likely stay away from the Texas coast.

Satellite imagery of Hurricane Bill.

Like we talked about over the weekend, Bill has now become the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season! The storm is getting better organized this morning and a steady strengthening is in the forecast. By Wednesday or Thursday, Bill could become a category 3 or 4 hurricane. He is moving west to northwest and will pass just north of Caribbean islands and could end up close to the island of Bermuda and several hundred miles off the east coast. Most of the computer models agree with turning Bill more northward and that may keep him away from the U.S. mainland. There is only one model that keeps Bill more south but right now it is the outlier. My guess is if most of the models keep showing the northward turn over the next few days, then it should stay away from the east coast. We will have more updates through the week. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Forecast from the different computer models.

We now have Tropical Storm Claudette, Tropical Depression Ana, and soon to be Hurricane Bill that we are tracking. Lets break it down for each storm:

TS Claudette: This storm really developed fast from a tropical wave that is currently moving westward through the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane hunters flew into the storm earlier on Sunday and found tropical storm force winds. So it was named Tropical Storm Claudette. The storm is expected to make landfall overnight and very early Monday morning over the Florida Panhandle. The main threat will be heavy rain which could lead to localized flooding. Still a small chance for some strengthening before landfall, but I doubt Claudette will become a hurricane. A good example from the past of another storm quickly intensifying was Hurricane Humberto in 2007 that hit the Texas coast.

TD Ana: Well Ana has once again lost most of her thunderstorms and seems to be losing the battle. She has been downgraded to a tropical depression and will continue heading westward across the Caribbean islands. If the circulation can survive and emerge in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week, then Ana may come back alive. However, almost all the computer models do not show her coming back to life.

Bill: The stage is set for Bill to become the first hurricane of the 2009 hurricane season. This will likely happen sometime on Monday. From there, Bill could become a major hurricane, reaching category 3 or 4 status. The storm will be moving northwest and will pass north of the Caribbean islands. By next weekend, an upper level trough is expected to develop across the eastern half of the U.S. which would keep Bill from hitting the East Coast. This same trough will push a cold front into Central Texas on Saturday! However, if the weather pattern does not evolve that way, then all bets are off.

We will have more updates through the week so check back here often. Also, check out the Tropical Tracker and follow us on Twitter at twitter.com/FirstAlert25WX. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom