Radar estimated rain totals for July across Texas.

The month of July has been very hot and dry across most of Central Texas. The Waco airport made it into the triple digits 18 times and received just under 3 inches of rain. However, from the map above, you can see other parts of the state did better or worse when it comes to rain. West Texas, the Panhandle, and north Texas all received up to 8 inches of rain. On the flip side, most of south Texas and the coastal regions got almost noting. And that is why that part of the state is dealing with extreme drought conditions. For us in Central Texas, we are stuck in the middle but drought conditions are much worse for our southern counties than our northern counties. The good news is if the El Nino weather pattern holds like most forecasters believe, then our fall and winter season could be rather wet. Of course, the damage from this drought has already been done. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Latest Texas Drought Map

Hard to believe that August is almost here! Hurricane season usually begins to pick up in August and peaks during September. So far this year, we had one tropical depression off the east coast that almost became the first storm of the season. Otherwise, the tropics have been really, really quiet. In 2008, the first tropical storm was Arthur occurred on May 31st. In 2007, it was Andrea on May 9th. In 2005, Arlene formed on June 8th. See the pattern? In recent years, hurricane season seemed to start very early. So why is this year different?

The main reason is probably El Nino. The weather pattern known as El Nino is a warming of the ocean waters in the Pacific Ocean. This leads to stronger trade winds, which leads to a harsher environment for tropical systems to develop. The last El Nino occurred in the 2006 where we still had nine named storms and two major hurricanes. So even though the weather pattern is holding back the developing of tropical systems for now, you can bet we will get our first named storm in August. That name will be Ana. The good news, it may not be as active of a hurricane season as in recent years. Below is the current forecast from the National Hurricane Center:

• 9-14 Storms
• 4-7 Hurricanes
• 1-3 Cat. 3 Hurricanes or stronger

For the record, in 1914, it was reported that only one tropical storm formed and no hurricanes developed. Of course, that was back when ship reports were the only thing that could spot tropical systems. Glad we can see them coming now! — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Police can arrest people who don’t leave town under mandatory evacuation orders under a new state law that goes into effect in the heart of Texas’ hurricane season. The law was passed this year and is effective Sept. 1st. It also applies to other disasters, such as fires or floods.

As it stands, officials cannot compel people to evacuate, only warn that those who stay behind won’t have any emergency services at their disposal.

The Corpus Christi Caller-Times reports the new law gives county judges and mayors the power to authorize use of “reasonable force” to remove people from the area.

Copyright Associated Press 2009

It was hot over the weekend with highs climbing back into the triple digits. That means, so far this summer, the airport in Waco has hit or exceeded 100 degrees 31 times. The good news is that mother nature will give us a break from the heat and a shot at some much needed rain. We are about 4 inches behind on our yearly rainfall and considering it is hard enough to get rain in July, it will be nice to see some the wet stuff.

What is the cause of for the storms? The overall weather pattern is changing where the high pressure that brings the heat will shift westward, placing Central Texas in a northwest flows. This means that disturbances to our northwest will move southeast from the Plains and into the region. Thus we get our rain chances. The hard part is timing these disturbances. It may rain in the morning one day and in the afternoon the next. The best advice is to keep the umbrella handy for the next few days. If you would like to share how much you rain you receive, leave a comment below! — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Storm Reports from Sunday

Most of Central Texas missed out on the rain Sunday afternoon, and a few lucky folks saw not only some much needed rain, but severe weather as well. The hardest hit area was in the Brazos Valley, especially in and around College Station. We had reports of hail ranging from pea size up to golf ball size. Winds also cause numerous tree damage and the National Weather Service is going to investigate a possible tornado in Washington county, near the town of Burton. Here in Waco, Temple, and Killeen we were safe from the bad weather. However, on Monday and Tuesday afternoons, we have a shot at scattered storms. I do not think everyone will see the rain but some of the storms could pack a punch. We will be tracking them for you and you can get the latest info by following us via Twitter at twitter.com/FirstAlert25WX. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Believe it or not, it looks like we will break this 100 degree streak by this weekend. So what is going to change? Well the area of high pressure which has been over Texas and Oklahoma will start to push west towards the four corners region. This will allow for the jet stream to dip farther south across the eastern half of the country. Here in our area, will be under what we call a northwest flow. That means the upper level winds will be blowing from the northwest to the southeast. What happens in this kind of flow is a chance of thunderstorm complexes to roll southward into the region. We call these Mesoscale Convective Systems. Also, a weak cold front will slide southward and may turn stationary across Central Texas. The bottom line is that temperatures will come down into the 90s and we will see a chance of storms Friday through Monday. I hope we get the rain because we need it! — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

El Nino is back. Government scientists said Thursday that the periodic warming of water in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which can affect weather around the world, has returned.

The Pacific had been in what is called a neutral state, but forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say the sea surface temperature climbed to 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit above normal along a narrow band in the eastern equatorial Pacific in June.

In addition, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said temperatures in other tropical regions are also above normal, with warmer than usual readings as much as 975 feet below the ocean surface.

In general, El Nino conditions are associated with increased rainfall across the east-central and eastern Pacific and with drier than normal conditions over northern Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines.

A summer El Nino can lead to wetter than normal conditions in the intermountain regions of the United States and over central Chile. In an El Nino year there tend to be more Eastern Pacific hurricanes and fewer Atlantic hurricanes.

The forecasters said they expect this El Nino to continue strengthening over the next few months and to last through the winter of 2009-2010.

“Advanced climate science allows us to alert industries, governments and emergency managers about the weather conditions El Nino may bring so these can be factored into decision-making and ultimately protect life, property and the economy,” NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco said in a statement.

NOAA officials noted that not all El Nino effects are negative. For example, it can suppress Atlantic hurricanes and bring needed moisture to the arid Southwest.

But it can also steer damaging winter storms to California and increase storminess across the southern United States.

The warming of the ocean can also lead to a reduction in the seafood catch off the West Coast, and fewer fish can also impact food sources for several types of birds and marine mammals.

A recent study by researchers at Georgia Tech suggests there may actually be two forms of El Nino, depending on whether the warming is stronger in the eastern or central pacific.

While the current warming seems to be strongest in the east, the more traditional form, government forecasters did not categorize it.

If the Georgia Tech study is correct, this would be the type of El Nino that reduces hurricanes in the Atlantic and Caribbean. The other form, centered farther west, reportedly seems to promote Atlantic storms.

Copyright Associated Press 2009

As of Sunday, July 5th, our number of 100 degree days for Waco stands at 18. The good news is our weak cold front will give us a short break on Monday, but then triple digits are in the forecast by midweek and into next weekend. We have talked a lot about comparing this summer heat wave to the hottest on record, which was the summer of 1980. That summer we had over 60 days at or above 100 degrees. For 2009, we would need to keep hitting 100 through July and most of August to come close to breaking that record. Could it happen? It might but if we keep getting these summer “cool” fronts, it might not. Of course, I will take a summer cold front whenever mother nature offers one!

Remember to stay cool in this summer heat. Last Friday, I went with family to the Cameron Park Zoo which was a lot of fun. I had never been. Thankfully, some of the exhibits like the snakes and fish are inside so you can cool off. However, it was hot walking around. I was glad to see most people drinking lots of water and trying to stay cool. Also, wear the sun screen so you do not get burned! — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has sent out a drought update for the area. Below are some of the highlights:

• The drought is getting worse.
• The corn crop has suffered because of the extreme heat.
• Fire danger is becoming elevated for the July and August.
• Many places went with little or no rain through most of June. Although the recent rains may have a helped a little.
• The forecast calls for me hot and dry weather for the rest of the summer.

You can read the full report by clicking here. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom