Hurricane Ike in 2008

NOAA released their forecast for the upcoming hurricane season, which kicks off June 1st and runs through November. To no surprise, they are predicting an above normal year.

• 14-23 Named Storms
• 8-14 Hurricanes
• 3-7 Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3 or higher)

I agree, overall, with the forecast but I would tend to lean more towards the high end of the ranges. Why? Well, the water temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean are already way above normal, especially compared to recent years. The El Nino pattern is gone which means the winds will be more relaxed and allow storms to develop. And all the weather signals are in place for a year that could rival 2005. That was the monster year we had Katrina and Rita!

Since are no where close to the Texas coast, we do not get to experience the full force of tropical systems. However, we do get the rain, wind, and mass influx of people evacuating from the coast. So tropical systems are important for us to watch and track. When storms do develop, we will post updates and I encourage you to follow along with us. — First Alert Meteorologist Conley Isom

Dane Harrison Midlothian

While watching the cumulus clouds tower up, you could tell the cap was holding strong early in the afternoon. To my northeast towards Waxahachie, a storm was moving southeast and had a nice rotation. I headed up to Ellis county as a tornado warning was issued. The storm produced a brief tornado near Midlothian and later produced more funnels near Corsicana. I was about 10 minutes too late to see the twister but watched a beautiful wall cloudy move southeast. Click here to see that video!

I dropped south back to Hillsboro as storms started firing farther west along the cold front. In Hillsboro, there was a lot of scud going into the storm which can be mistaken for a wall cloud. However, it was not rotating. Eventually it did take on a lowering and wall cloud that moved towards Hubbard. Thankfully, no tornadoes came out of it.

Mike Andrews south of Valley Mills

More storms fired in Bosque county and these were the ones that moved into Waco. Both cells had lowerings and wall clouds but never produced a tornado. Why? We think the main reason is the lack of shear, or turning of winds, in the lower levels. You need strong winds blowing into the storms and we did not have that. Even though the whole storm was rotating, it was mainly in the mid and upper levels. This may the storms look very nasty but it looked worse than it really was.

We did have several nice hail cores with numerous hail reports up to golf ball size or larger. Once core passed west of Waco and hit the lake area hard. The other passed east of town down Hwy 6 towards Riesel. Eventually the cells merged together and dumped lots of hail in Falls county along Hwy 77. This is where my chase ended and I made it back to the station around midnight.

Check out our viewer photos and more by check out our Facebook page….www.facebook.com/FirstAlert25WX — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

After Thursday, high pressure builds in for the weekend leading to warm and humid weather for a while. Also, with June 1st approaching, that begins the start of hurricane season. The official NOAA forecast comes next week and all signs point to a very active hurricane season. I will have more on that in the coming week. — First Alert Meteorologist Conley Isom

Severe Risk from SPC

The weather continues to be very active across Central Texas but it is May so we would expect it to be so. Our next strong storm system will be moving into the Plains by Wednesday and could lead to severe weather. Right now, a moderate risk for severe weather is from the DFW area and northward into Oklahoma. A slight risk is in place from Waco north. A dry line will set up west of us by the afternoon and as the atmosphere heats up, it will become very unstable. Storms will fire along and ahead of the dry line and will quickly turn severe. Large hail, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes could all occur. The greatest threat will exist to our north but we will be watching it closely.

One thing that might keep us from seeing the storms will be what happens overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. We may see a complex of storms in the Texas Panhandle form Tuesday night and roll southeast towards us by morning. If that happens, the air would stabilize behind the complex and make it harder for storms Wednesday afternoon to form. So there is still some uncertainty about this event but I encourage to keep tabs on the weather for the next day or two. — First Alert Meteorologist Conley Isom

Starting Thursday and lasting through the weekend, we will have multiple chance for rain across Central Texas. A cold front will move in Thursday and stall out right across the area. Then a series of disturbances will move through along the front and keep rain chances going through at least Sunday. The image above shows you the 5 day forecast of accumulated rainfall and we are in the area that could see about 3-4 inches of rain. It has been dry as of late so the rain will be a welcome change. However, we are not doing bad for rainfall so far this year. Remember, it was a rainy start to the year and we are currently about 6 inches above normal on rainfall. Hopefully we get as much as possible before the faucets are turned off over the summer.

I want to briefly mention the chance for severe weather on Thursday as the cold front moves in. We will likely see a broken line of storms which would mean large hail and gusty winds are the main threats. However, if we see individual cells, then the tornado threat would be higher. There should be plenty of instability in place so the chances is there for isolated severe weather.  SPC (Severe Prediction Center) currently has us under a SEE TEXT outlook, meaning they are not that excited for severe weather. I bet we see a slight risk at some point by Thursday. We will be tracking it closely! — First Alert Meteorologist Conley Isom

Warm and windy weather is on tap this week for Central Texas. On Monday, we will see temperatures climb close to 90 degrees in the afternoon with a strong, south wind gusting up to 40 mph. As a friend of mine would say, it will be good kite flying weather! We are also tracking a dry line that will take shape to our west from San Angelo to Abilene. This area could see a few severe storms develop but our current thinking is that most of the activity will stay away from Waco/Temple/Killeen. However, we cannot rule out the chance for a storm to make it into our northwestern counties from San Saba to Hamilton. Below is a video update from Sunday evening talking about the chance for severe weather. It could be a historic day in Oklahoma and Kansas with long lived tornadoes. — First Alert Meteorologist Conley Isom

• Surface temperatures warm to a certain level which will weaken the cap
• Strong forcing from a cold front or upper air disturbance

We have already seen a few times this year where all the ingredients are in place for severe weather, but nothing happens because the cap was too strong. You do need a little bit of a cap if you want severe weather. Ideally, this would build up the energy in the atmosphere and when the cap breaks, storms would go severe quickly. Watch during the month of May when we have storm systems head our way and see if the cap wins. When it loses, that is when we will see our worst weather. — First Alert Meteorologist Conley Isom