Starting Thursday and lasting through the weekend, we will have multiple chance for rain across Central Texas. A cold front will move in Thursday and stall out right across the area. Then a series of disturbances will move through along the front and keep rain chances going through at least Sunday. The image above shows you the 5 day forecast of accumulated rainfall and we are in the area that could see about 3-4 inches of rain. It has been dry as of late so the rain will be a welcome change. However, we are not doing bad for rainfall so far this year. Remember, it was a rainy start to the year and we are currently about 6 inches above normal on rainfall. Hopefully we get as much as possible before the faucets are turned off over the summer.

I want to briefly mention the chance for severe weather on Thursday as the cold front moves in. We will likely see a broken line of storms which would mean large hail and gusty winds are the main threats. However, if we see individual cells, then the tornado threat would be higher. There should be plenty of instability in place so the chances is there for isolated severe weather.  SPC (Severe Prediction Center) currently has us under a SEE TEXT outlook, meaning they are not that excited for severe weather. I bet we see a slight risk at some point by Thursday. We will be tracking it closely! — First Alert Meteorologist Conley Isom

We knew we were going to get a lot of rain this weekend and most places received healthy amounts. The amount at the Waco airport Saturday was enough to break the daily record rainfall. Luckily, even though most of it fell Saturday night, we did not have to deal with much flooding. The flood watch that was in effect was mainly for local creeks and rivers which will rise some over the coming days as water flows southward down the Brazos and Trinity rivers. Here are some other totals from some of our viewers and we thank them for sending in their reports.

• Grady Crowson, North Waco: 2.25″
• Al Wissinger, Easterly: 0.74″
• WC Patty: 1.95″

Now our attention turns to our next rain maker which is slated to arrive on Friday. Computer models are not in agreement on timing or strength but from what I can tell, we may have a shot at severe weather Friday afternoon. I will have updates through the week so stay tuned! — First Alert Meteorologist Conley Isom

A slow moving area of low pressure will keep rain chances alive through Sunday. So far, the heaviest of the rain has fallen west and south of Central Texas. In fact, San Saba county had up to 4 inches on Thursday. From the image above, there will be a gradient on the amount of rain we see. The most will fall across the western counties, which could lead to some flooding problems. Here locally in Waco/Temple/Killeen, on average you can expect 1-2 inches with isolated amounts higher than that. Farther east you go, along the I-45 corridor and into the Brazos Valley, about an inch can be expected. The good news is that no severe weather is expected, just a nice soaking rain shower with some thunder mixed in. This a good kind of rain for our spring plants and yards.

If you would like to share your rainfall totals over the weekend, you have several options. Leave a comment below, send it to us via Twitter or Facebook, or email us at weather@kxxv.com. – First Alert Meteorologist Conley Isom

The weather won’t change much this week as we stay stuck in this weather pattern. An area of high pressure in the upper levels is to our east and keeping a lid on rain chances for now. However, towards the end of the week, this system will weaken enough to allow for pop up storms. If you are wanting a lot of rain, don’t count on it. These storms will be scattered to where not everyone will see the rain, or you may get lucky and have a storm pop up in your community. Temperatures are not expected to change much with highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s. Better rain chances may occur by the weekend as a weak cold front settles in to our north. We really could use a cold front or big rain event to wash out the atmosphere and get rid of this pollen.

Don’t forget to follow us on Facebook and Twitter for more weather fun! — First Alert Meteorologist Conley Isom

Best chance or severe weather is well north of Central Texas.

A dry line and cold front will be moving through Central Texas, mainly after midnight and into Wednesday morning. There is about a 40% chance for storms but coverage may not be all that great, so not everyone will see the rain. The main reason for a lower chance is the cap, which I talked about in the previous post. The cap is just way too strong to overcome. However, there is about a 5% chance that the cap could break, and if that happen, the storm would turn severe quickly. Something we are tracking carefully but nothing to worry about.

Behind the cold front, we will see highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s for a few days. Next chance for storms will be early next week. — First Alert Meteorologist Conley Isom

We are about to enter the spring season and that is when severe weather becomes more of a concern. Our next storm system will bring us thunderstorms Monday afternoon but the question still remains on how strong they will be. Looking over the latest data, we have some of the ingredients in place for severe weather but not everything. We will likely see scattered showers and cloudy skies through the day, which will limit daytime heating and keep the air more stable. As the best energy arrives in the afternoon, there is no doubt we will see storms develop but I doubt we will see that many turn severe. Some hail and gusty winds are the main threats with the stronger cells.

The statement we keep saying with this event is that it is only March, meaning if this same pattern happens in May, the severe threat would be much greater. I would still stay tuned and keep an eye on the radar through the afternoon. We will be tracking any storms very carefully. — First Alert Meteorologist Conley Isom

Rain totals for the end of the week.

We are tracking our next storm system that will bring Central Texas a round of heavy rain starting Thursday and lasting through Saturday. This system is going to be a powerful one and will be using Pacific moisture in the upper levels and Gulf of Mexico moisture at the surface. From the map above, the current forecast calls for 1-3 inches of rain with isolated amounts as high as 4 to 5 inches, especially across parts of the Brazos Valley. No severe weather is expected but there could be a few rumbles of thunder mixed in.

By late Friday into Saturday morning, we will be on the back side of this storm system and temperatures will be cooling off. Some computer models do show us getting to the freezing mark which would lead to a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow. As of right now, no major impacts are expected but if the models trend colder through the week, that is something that might change. You have to consider that we are in the middle of winter and the track of this system is very favorable for winter weather across Texas. We will have updates later this week. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Courtesy of NWS in Fort Worth

We have hinted at this for several days now and as we get closer to this weather event, things are becoming a little clearer. However, let me warn you that the models may change in the next 24-48 hours and any slight chance could have a big impact on our weather. The main cause for this event is an area of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere that we have been tracking since the weekend. It is expected to move eastward into the state on Tuesday and could lead to a big winter event for west Texas. As the system gets closer to Central Texas, we will see widespread showers develop and we could be in store for lots of rain, on the order of 1-2 inches. By Wednesday morning, the core of the system will be move northwest of Waco/Temple/Killeen, crossing the DFW area before lifting northeast out of the state. If this path holds true, then there is a chance to see a winter mix in the far western and northwestern counties. This would include San Saba, Goldthwaite, Hamiton, and Meridian. As we have stated before and on air, the surface temperatures will likely be above freezing to nothing will stick and no travel impacts are expected. Everything should clear out by late Wednesday but it will remain cold the rest of the week.

One thing to note is that a lot of this depends on the track of the storm system. The coldest air will be right under the core and to the northwest of the core. This is why the northwest counties have the better shot at wintry precipitation. However, if the track happens to go farther south, the line for sleet and snow would come a little closer to the I-35 corridor. As the new models come in, we will be analyzing them closely and will let you know of any changes. Again, even if we see sleet or snow, it will not amount to much but it would be pretty to see. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Cold front by Thursday morning

It looks like everything is coming together for a storms Thursday morning with the approach of our next storm system and cold front. A line of storms is expected to develop after midnight to our northwest. This line will be tracking eastward across Central Texas. We are currently under a slight risk for severe weather with about a 30% chance that we will have severe weather. The main threats will be winds over 60 mph, large hail, and an isolated tornado cannot be rule out. The winds are going to create a lot of turning or spinning in the atmosphere so if a storm can develop ahead of the line, it will likely rotate. This storm system is very dynamic and strong so be ready for a stormy Thursday morning. Don’t forget you can always get the latest severe weather on our 24/7 weather channel, the only one in Central Texas. It is on digital channel 25.3 or Time Warner Cable Channel 11.

Flash Flood Watch

One more severe weather threat will be the chance for flash flooding. As I mentioned in yesterday’s post, we now have a Flash Flood Watch in effect for most of the area until 7 PM Thursday. The only areas not under the watch are our extreme western counties including San Saba, Lampasas, Mills, and Hamiliton. Heavy rain will be likely with the line of storms and since we have already seen lots of rain on Monday and all month, it will not take much to cause more flooding problems. Local creeks and rivers are also going to be in trouble since they are already have high levels. For the month of October, the airport in Waco has had 9.68″ of rain, making it the third wettest October on record. We only need 0.84″ more to become the wettest October in history. Now that is a lot of rain! We needed the rain to get out of the drought but now we are dealing with too much. So goes Texas weather. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom