It has been a while since we have seen a good snow storm across Central Texas. We did have a couple of inches for the Easter snow event in 2007 and the Valentine’s Day storm in 2004. This time around we did slightly better with average snow totals of about 3 inches and some spots getting closer to 5 or 6 inches. The last time we saw that much snow was the winter of 1982!

Just as the computer models showed, we were right in the bulls eye for the heaviest snow. The track of the storm was farther south than previous winter storms and the air was a touch colder for us. The winter precipitation started a little earlier than the models showed and it started off with more rain and sleet than we expected. That more than likely kept our snow accumulation down by an inch or two. The sleet is what woke me up that morning as it banged against our windows. Shortly after sunrise, it all transitioned to snow and kept falling into Tuesday night. The first band in the morning was the heaviest and that is when things were really slushy. Then as the snow let up and the clouds thinned out a little, the snow melted on most roadways which may travel fine in the afternoon. Once the sun set, temperatures dropped below freezing and everything iced up.

Thanks to everyone who sent us winter weather photos and we will post as many as we can on the weather page on KXXV.com. I will also include some of my favorites here in the Weather Blog. — First Alert Meteorologist Conley Isom

As the latest computer model data comes in, everything is still on track for our winter storm Tuesday. The above image is an updated graphic from the National Weather Service in Fort Worth that shows increased snowfall totals. For the most part, we agree with them. The storm is farther south than the last one so that is why Waco/Temple/Killeen are in the middle of the heaviest snow. Plus, we anticipate banding of snow, which means we will see a narrow area where snow totals could be up to 7 or 8 inches. Most of the snow will only accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces. However, travel will likely be impacted Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as temperatures fall below freezing.

We will continue to bring track this winter storm and you can join our live weather discussion on the weather page of KXXV.com. — First Alert Meteorologist Conley Isom

Almost all of Central Texas is now under a Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday. The only exception are our far southern counties near Burnet and Georgetown. By Monday afternoon, I expect this watch to be upgraded to a warning. The computer models have not changed since Friday so confidence is high that we will see snow on Tuesday across most of the area. The track of the storm will be farther south than the last winter storm so Waco/Temple/Killeen has the higher chance for heavy snow as compared to places farther north around the DFW area. Current forecast models show anywhere between 2-8 inches of snow could fall before the event is done. I know that is a wide range but we won’t know where the heaviest snow will be until it starts developing. We are going to be looking for what we call a snow band that will set up somewhere over us. This will be a narrow band where snow totals could exceed 6-8 inches. Outside of this band, totals will be more in line with 2-4 inches, which still would be enough to make a small snowman!

Matt and Tiffany will be covering the winter storm from the weather center and I will be out in the Storm Interceptor sending back live video from the heaviest snow bands. Please send us your reports on Twitter or email us your photos to weatherpics@kxxv.com. The more information we have, the better info we can give out to our viewers. — First Alert Meteorologist Conley Isom

The image above is the forecast for snowfall accumulation from the National Weather Service in Fort Worth. For the most part, we generally agree with their forecast. Forecasting snowfall totals is very difficult. Point in case was the last winter storm that dumped up to a foot of snow in the DFW area. No one could of seen that coming. It all depends on where we see heavy bands of snow set up. This could be a strip 60 miles long but only 20 miles wide. So this is why we give an average number followed by isolated higher amounts. For this event, 2-4 inches look good for an average, with isolated amounts as high as 6 inches in a few places.

Of course, things may change as we get closer to the event but most of the computer models have been very consistent, so our confidence is high. Remember to send us your winter weather photos to weatherpics@kxxv.com and we will show them on air. — First Alert Meteorologist Conley Isom

Computer model showing snow for Tuesday.

Going into this winter season, we knew it would be an active one with this El Nino weather pattern. We have already seen several winter storms track across the state of Texas and we have another one that will moving through on Tuesday. This time around, more of Central Texas could see snow as compared to the last storm. In fact, this storm looks to move farther south and will have colder air to work with. Therefore, the chance for snow is a little higher.

As for accumulations, still too far to pin point but some computer models show up to 6 inches in some places. I bet we see some sort of accumulation, especially on grassy and elevated surfaces. I would not expect the foot of snow that the DFW area saw last time since moisture levels won’t be as high. One thing to note about the southerly track is that this would place Waco/Temple/Killeen in the heart of the heaviest snow. Stay tuned for more updates and we will try to have our live chat on the weather page during the event. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Below are some photos I took while driving around Hillsboro Thursday afternoon. Send us your winter weather photos to weatherpics@kxxv.com. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has placed most of Central Texas in a Winter Weather Advisory until 7AM Friday. This means we could see 1-3 inches of snow accumulation, mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces. The advisory does include Waco but it does not include Killeen or Temple. However, we still expect light accumulations of snow and sleet in Bell county.

Timing is still the same with precipitation moving in by Thursday morning in the form of a mix of snow, sleet, and rain. By Thursday afternoon, temperatures will be slightly above freezing so mainly rain is expected then. Then by Thursday evening into Friday morning, the rain switches back to mostly snow and sleet and this is when it will likely accumulate. Travel should be ok Thursday morning. It is Friday morning that will be impacted with icy roads. Stay tuned to News Channel 25 for the latest and you can always see the radar on our 24/7 Weather Channel, digital channel 25.3 or Time Warner Cable channel 11. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

On Tuesday, the computer models came in a little warmer so our confidence in a wintry mix for Central Texas went down. However, today’s computer models have come in a little colder, so the chance for snow and sleet has gone up some. We still think the transition line will move back and forth across our region so we may start off with sleet and snow, transition to rain, then transition back to snow and sleet. Again, temperatures will be key on how long we can stay at the freezing mark.

Our time line has not changed. We will likely see a wintry mix after midnight and into Thursday morning. By Thursday afternoon, temperatures may climb a few degrees above freezing, leaving just a cold rain. Then overnight Thursday into Friday morning, with precipitation still falling, we may transition back to sleet and snow as colder air filters in behind the storm system. Friday morning could be icy in spots so travel may be impacted.

Things could still change as this event begins to unfold so you will want to stay tuned for updates. You can get the latest via our Twitter page and check back to the weather page for our live chats. You can also send in your winter weather photos to weatherpics@kxxv.com. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

The latest computer model data has come in and it still looks like we will get a wintry mix across Central Texas on Thursday. There are still a lot of uncertainties from the exact track of the storm and how much accumulation we will see. Temperatures will be key as we will likely be at or slightly above the freezing mark through this event. However, if the storm system tracks a little farther north, it may be more rain than sleet or snow. The farther south it goes, the more cold air we will see, and thus more snow and sleet will be possible.

Our current thinking really has not changed from Monday. I think from Waco/Temple/Killeen and points north and west will have the highest chance of seeing a wintry mix. The farther north you go towards the DFW area, it will mainly be snow. The winter mix will move into the region early Thursday morning with temperatures close to the freezing mark. We may see temperatures climb above freezing during the day on Thursday but will drop back to 32 degrees by Friday morning. If we see any travel impacts, Friday morning would be it, with patches of ice on bridges and overpasses.

Again, we cannot stress enough that things will likely change between now and even during the event. We will continue to pour over the latest data as it comes in and will let you know if anything drastically changes. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom