Not only is the weather going to be perfect for Thanksgiving here in Central Texas, but pretty much anywhere you go around the state, the weather should be nice. The forecast calls for lots of sunshine, cool in the morning, and pleasant in the afternoon. I am glad it will be chilly Thanksgiving morning with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. The cooler weather helps put me in the holiday mood. So you could not of asked for a better forecast and we wish everyone a happy Turkey Day! — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

I have to admit that it has been nice with temperatures near 80 degrees this weekend but considering it is November, we should expect it to be cold. Get ready because the cold weather returns Monday as a cold front sweeps through Central Texas! Temperatures will likely hover in the 50s through most of the day on Monday but with winds howling over 20 mph from the northwest, those 50s will feel more like 40s. As skies clear out in the evening, temperatures will be dropping into the upper 30s by Tuesday morning for Waco/Temple/Killeen. However, our far western counties, including San Saba, Mills, Hamilton, and Burnet could see temperatures getting close to the freezing mark. There could also be patchy frost so take precautions now.

I am more worried that Wednesday morning could be a few degrees colder. We will have clear skies, high pressure close by, calm winds, and cold air already in place. These are all the ingredients for radiational cooling. Basically, this means that the heat of the day quickly escapes into space and temperatures drop towards the dew point, which measures the amount of moisture in the air. Since the air will be very dry, dew points will likely be in the low to mid 30s, which is where our temperatures could be Wednesday morning. We will be tracking this closely and stay tuned for updates. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

It is that time of year when Daylight Saving Time ends so we turn our clocks back one hour as we head to bed on Saturday night. The good news is we all get an extra hour of sleep! This is also a good time to check the batteries in your smoke detectors and weather radios.

So where did Daylight Savings come from? Well, the idea came about as a way to add more sunlight in the afternoons. This would then allow farmers more time in the fields to harvest their crops. It also allowed local businesses to stay open later and make more money. Another reason was to save energy costs since you would not have to run lights but modern energy techniques have countered that. Recent studies suggest there really is not a good reason why we change our clocks. It has become more a nuisance than anything. I personally like the longer days in the summer and shorter days in the winter. However, going home in the dark after work takes a while to get used to. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Slight Risk from SPC

We are tracking our next storm system and cold front that will move into Central Texas overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Most of the area is currently under a slight risk for severe weather from the Severe Prediction Center. We will likely see storms develop west of the DFW area late Wednesday night with a squall line developing after midnight. That line of storms will move into the I-35 corridor by Thursday morning. The main severe weather threats look to be large hail, gusty winds, and flash flooding. We cannot rule out an isolated tornado if any storms form ahead of the main line. The rain may also lead to flooding, especially in creeks and rivers that are already way up due to the rain on Monday. A Flash Flood Watch will likely be issued sometime on Wednesday.

Big snow storm for Denver

Temperatures will also take a nose dive but there is a question of how cold it will get. The computer models have been jumping back and forth on warm and cold. I am going to lean more towards colder since that has been the trend with our cold fronts. One thing to point out is the fact this system will drip 8-12 inches of snow in Denver and in the Rocky Mountains. So there is cold air associated with this system but we just don’t know how far south that cold air will go. Bottom line…get ready for more rain and cold weather by the end of the week. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Heavy rain possible overnight

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for most of Central Texas until 6 AM Thursday. We have already seen some rain Wednesday morning but the heaviest activity won’t move in until late tonight and into the morning. This is when the potential for flooding will be the highest. The main reason for the threat of flooding will be the combination of heavy downpours and all the rain we have seen in the past few weeks. A lot of creeks and rivers, like the Trinity River, are already close to flood stage. So it will not take much rain to cause rivers and creeks to rise. Remember to be careful when driving in rainy weather. If a road has water running over it, turn around, don’t drown. Flooding is even more dangerous at night. The rain should taper off by Thursday morning as a cold front sweeps through and then it turns chilly again, just in time for the weekend.

One quick note about the extended forecast, beyond the 7 day forecast. Computer models have been hinting at a very strong cold front moving through before Halloween, around the 30th of October. One computer model run from today shows the potential for freezing temperatures and ice/snow across parts of Texas. Way too early to say what will happen but just wanted to point out the trend and that we are tracking it closely. I am sure the models will change a lot between now and then. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Changes by Midweek

After a nice weekend across Central Texas, we are tracking a cold front that will move into the area on Wednesday. We are also tracking Hurricane Rick, which continues to weaken as it pushes towards the west coast of Mexico. Moisture from Rick will combine with the cold front and provide us with a good chance for heavy rain. Not anticipating any severe weather but there could be a few thunderstorms mixed in. Rainfall totals could average an inch or two with heavier amounts across south Texas. Temperatures will warm to near 80 degrees ahead of the front, but will nose dive on Thursday as gusty north winds blow in. Good news is that it looks like the rain and clouds will clear out for the weekend, but it will remain cool, especially in the mornings.

Also, you may have noticed our weather section on www.kxxv.com has changed. We have upgraded our content and hopefully it will make it easier to find things. Let us know what you think and what you would like to see added. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Our next cold front will be swinging through Central Texas early Friday morning, bringing a chance for severe storms and much cooler weather. As for severe weather, the main threats will be straight line winds, heavy rain, and deadly lightning. The flooding threat is high because of the recent rains and the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. There is a Flash Flood Watch in effect for the northern and western parts of the area. This is where we could see 2-4 inches of rain with isolated amounts higher than that. Remember, flooding kills more people every year than any other type of severe weather so be careful. The rain should end west to east through midday Friday as the front moves off to the east.

Behind the front, get ready for a return to Fall like temperatures! We are talking highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s over the weekend. This time around, the cooler weather will stick around a little longer but it is Texas weather and we will likely see more ups and downs through October. At least we will have a chance to breakout the jackets! — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

We are tracking our next cold front that is just to the northwest of the DFW area on this Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms are developing along the front and as the front pushes southeast into Central Texas, we will see a good chance of storms. There is a slight risk for severe weather today with the main threats being large hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain. Since some places saw several inches of rain over the weekend, more heavy rain could lead to localizes flooding, especially along creeks and rivers. The cold front should be south of us by late evening, so the rain should come to an end overnight. However, the front will move back north on Wednesday as a warm front, clearing the way for another cold front to move in late Thursday into Friday. More on that later this week. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

The first day of autumn — Sept. 22 this year — is no guarantee of fall-like weather, but officially the season’s start comes around at the same time each year nonetheless.

The first day of autumn arrives on varying dates in different years for two reasons: Our year is not exactly an even number of days; and Earth’s slightly noncircular orbit, plus the gravitational tug of the other planets, constantly changes our planet’s orientation to the sun from year to year.

And weather-wise, Earth’s seasons have shifted in the past 150 years or so, according to a study that came out earlier this year. The hottest and coldest days of the years now are occurring almost two days earlier.

This year, fall starts Tuesday, because that is when the so-called autumnal equinox occurs (at 5:18 p.m. EDT). Equinoxes (which mark the onset of spring and autumn) and solstices (which mark when summer and winter begin) are points in time and space that mark a transition in our planet’s annual trip around the sun.

At each equinox, the sun crosses the Earth’s equator, making night and day of approximately equal length on most of the planet (from the Latin, equinox means “equal night”). At the equator, the sun is directly overhead at noon on either equinox.

Source: LiveScience.com

Here come our cold front...

Tuesday marks the beginning of Fall but technically speaking, it does not begin until 4:18 PM. I bet by that time, it will feel like Fall with much cooler temperatures, cloudy skies, and even a few linger showers. All of this will be thanks to our cold front that will move through early on Tuesday morning and continue heading towards the Texas coast by the evening. Right now, we are anticipating a line of showers and storms to develop along the front and back build southward into Central Texas. There is a slight risk for severe weather with strong winds, lightning, and heavy rain the main threats. In fact, we already have a Flash Flood Watch in effect for the northern counties. Behind the front, north winds will usher in cooler air, which will lead to lows in the 60s and highs near 80 degrees.

Later in the week, the cold front is expected to lift back north as a warm front, which will bring back thunderstorm chances Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will also start warming back up by the weekend so enjoy the cooler weather while it last. The overall weather pattern is changing across the country so I would guess we will start seeing cold front on a regular basis now. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom