Hurricane Ike in 2008

NOAA released their forecast for the upcoming hurricane season, which kicks off June 1st and runs through November. To no surprise, they are predicting an above normal year.

• 14-23 Named Storms
• 8-14 Hurricanes
• 3-7 Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3 or higher)

I agree, overall, with the forecast but I would tend to lean more towards the high end of the ranges. Why? Well, the water temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean are already way above normal, especially compared to recent years. The El Nino pattern is gone which means the winds will be more relaxed and allow storms to develop. And all the weather signals are in place for a year that could rival 2005. That was the monster year we had Katrina and Rita!

Since are no where close to the Texas coast, we do not get to experience the full force of tropical systems. However, we do get the rain, wind, and mass influx of people evacuating from the coast. So tropical systems are important for us to watch and track. When storms do develop, we will post updates and I encourage you to follow along with us. — First Alert Meteorologist Conley Isom

I know it is hard to believe that we are already talking about hurricanes when we are just now entering April. Even though here in Central Texas we never see the brunt of a hurricane, many of us have friends and family along the Texas coast. You can also trust that we will be tracking every hurricane that develops this year.

Dr. Gray is scientist with Colorado State University and he puts out a forecast for hurricanes every year. Accuweather and the NOAA do the same, but the official one from NOAA won’t come out until May. Remember, hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. Here is the forecast from Dr. Gray:

• 15 Named Storms
• 8 Hurricanes
• 4 Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or greater)

These numbers suggest an above average year in the tropics. After looking at data from the tropics and weather patterns, I tend to agree with the forecast. Our El Nino pattern is weakening which will make the atmosphere more favorable for development. Remember, it was El Nino that kept last years hurricane season quiet. Temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean are already slightly warmer than normal which you need a lot of warm water to sustain tropical systems. Also, it has been quiet the past two years in the tropics so I get the feeling we are due.

For more information on Dr. Gray’s forecast, and I highly recommend you read it, even if you don’t understand it fully, click the following link:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2010/april2010/apr2010.pdf

–First Alert Meteorologist Conley Isom

Track for Ida

Ida has reminded us that it is still hurricane season and that it does not end until November 31st. This late season storm become a hurricane before making landfall in Central America and then weakened. Once the storm headed north back over open waters, Ida became a hurricane again and headed into the Central Gulf of Mexico. At one point, the winds were over 100 mph making it a category 2 storm. Now Ida is battering Alabama and the Florida Panhandle with rain, wind, and waves. The storm is expected to slowly turn eastward and could cause some major flooding problems across the southeast. Thankfully for us, Ida stayed well away because we still need more time to dry out from our wet October. Our weather looks to stay quiet until next weekend with the approach of our next storm system and cold front. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Category 5 Hurricane Rick

Here is a reminder that it is still hurricane season. Even though we don’t have anything in the Atlantic, the Pacific hurricane season has been pretty busy. Now we have Hurricane Rick, which as of Saturday night, is a monster storm with winds of 180 mph! That is the strongest hurricane in the Pacific since 1997. The forecast calls for Rick to continue heading northwest, just off the west coast of Mexico. Then a bend to the northeast is expected and it will move over the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula as a category 2 hurricane.

Forecast Track for Rick

Why are we tracking Hurricane Rick? Well after landfall, what is left of Rick will move towards Texas and could pass to the south of us. This means we could see more clouds and even some rain on Thursday and Friday. There is also a cold front that will move through Wednesday and where it ends up to our south is likely the track of moisture from Rick. Still lots of time to watch the storm and it is not everyday you see a category 5 hurricane. We will have more updates this week so stay tuned! — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Hurricane Fred in the Atlantic

Fred has gone through rapid intensification overnight and is now a category two hurricane way out in the Atlantic. Winds this morning are up to 105 mph and the eye is easily seen on satellite imagery. The forecast for Fred has not changed, with the storm turning northward and stay far away from any land masses. Fred should also begin to weaken as it pushes into cooler waters and runs into more wind shear which will tear the storm apart. You can track Hurricane Fred by checking out our Tropical Tracker.

Computer model showing something in the Gulf of Mexico by late Friday.

The rest of the tropics are quiet but we may need to watch the Gulf of Mexico closely over the next few days. Computer models are trying to develop an area of low pressure just off the Texas coast by Friday afternoon. Hard to tell if this will be a warm or cold core low pressure system which means if it is warm core, it would be tropical in nature. If it was cold core, it would be like our normal storm systems that move across the country. Since is it September, the heart of hurricane season, anything is possible. A good example of something like this happening in the past is Hurricane Humberto in 2007. It went from nothing to a hurricane in record breaking time, becoming the fastest intensification of any tropical system before making landfall. We will be tracking closely and will have updates through the week. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Tropical Storm Fred

Now that we are in September, we are in the peak of hurricane season. We do have a newly classified tropical storm that just off the coast of Africa and a long way from the United States. It is Tropical Storm Fred, packing winds of 50 mph and tracking westward at about 15 mph. Slow strengthening is expected this week so Fred may become a hurricane in the next few days. I would not worry too much about Fred because most of the models turn the storm northward in a couple of days, keeping it far, far away from us. This is what we call a “fish” storm, when hurricanes turn north into the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Back here at home, our weather pattern is changing a lot as we get ready to head into fall, and it looks like the chances for a major hurricane striking the Texas coast are very low. However, we still have three months of hurricane season to go so we cannot completely let our guard down. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Forecast track for Fred

Soon to be Erika?

As we round out August and head into September, we are entering the peak of hurricane season. So far this season the U.S. has been lucky with Danny and Bill turning north along the east coast and Ana being ripped apart by the Caribbean islands. Tropical Storm Claudette was the only direct hit so far, and she was mainly a rain maker for parts of the southeast. The next name on the list is Erika and we may have her early this week. A nice tropical wave has been moving through the Atlantic, tracking westward. One day the disturbance looked good and then the next, it would look bad. As of Sunday morning, it looks like it is getting better organized and I feel if it can maintain the clouds and storms, it could become a depression on Monday and maybe Erika by Tuesday. Computer models are not picking up on this feature very well so I would only take there forecast with a grain of salt. If it makes it into the Caribbean, it might be something to watch for interests along the Gulf coast.

On a side note, August 29th is the 4th year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. Take a moment to remember those who were effected by this storm. –First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Forecast Track for TS Danny

We now have Danny, a tropical storm located just east of the Bahamas. Hurricane Hunters flew into the storm on Tuesday and found strong winds but no closed circulation. However, this morning, the circulation had formed and thus we have Tropical Storm Danny. The forecast calls for the storm to head northwest and then turn northward up the east coast. The main reason for this is the cold front coming into Texas on Thursday will help push Danny more northward. The question will be does the storm turn later or sooner? Sooner and the storm could hit Cape Cod farther up the coast. Later and it will likely hit North Carolina. Bottom line for us is that the storm will stay out of the Gulf of Mexico. You can get the latest on Danny by checking out our Tropical Tracker and we will have more updates through the week. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Next Tropical System???

Bill is no more and now we look back out in the Atlantic for our next possible tropical system. We do not have to look far as a tropical wave is causing some concern as it approaches the northeastern Caribbean. (It is the one circled in the image above.) The Hurricane Center has labeled it as Invest 92 and the hurricane hunters are planning to fly into on Tuesday afternoon. Right now, I would give this about a 30-40% chance of developing and even if it gets better organizes, it will likely do so very slowly. The environment around the wave is not that ideal but conditions are forecast to improve through the week. If this feature becomes a tropical storm, it will be given the name Danny. Remember, Claudette fromed on the west coast of Florida and hit the Florida panhandle. The computer models that do develop the storm take it into the Bahamas over the next few days, then up the east coast, possibly effecting the Carolina’s. For now, it looks like it will stay out of the Gulf of Mexico, which is good news. –First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Friday morning satellite imagery of Bill.

Hurricane Bill has weakened some this morning, but still a category 3 storm with winds up to 115 mph. He is tracking northwest at 18 mph and will continue to take more of a curve northward, then eventually northeast. Even though Bill will not strike the East coast, he will make his presence known. Large swells and waves are already beginning to affect the coast line and the public is being advised to stay out of the ocean due to dangerous rip currents. We will also likely see some beach erosion along the coast.

Besides Bill, the rest of the tropics are quiet, for now. We are tracking one tropical wave in the Atlantic that might develop next week close to the Bahamas. Some of the computer models are picking up on this but not all of them. The peak of hurricane season usually hits in September so I would expect more activity in the next several weeks. If the weather pattern holds the way it looks now, then the Gulf of Mexico might be spared from tropical activity. I am just glad Bill decided to turn north! — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom