We have been talking about the chance for wintry weather this week since the end of last week. Now, the computer models are coming into agreement and all signs point to a very good chance of seeing snow, sleet, and freezing rain across Central Texas. The graphic above is a forecast that indicates an above 40% chance of seeing over 4 inches of snow from Waco northward and westward. Since we are still a few days out, we don’t know exactly where or how much snow will fall but confidence is growing that it might be somewhere in Central Texas. One of the key factors will be temperatures since we may be a degree or two above freezing during the day on Thursday. However, Thursday morning and Friday morning, we will be below freezing so those are our windows for picking up accumulating snow.

Our current thinking is from a Burnet, Temple, Marlin, Fairfield line and points north is where the highest chance for wintry weather will be. This means Waco, Temple, and Killeen are included in this area. As more data comes in, we will get a better handle on this storm. We may even see Winter Weather watches or advisories issued late Tuesday into Wednesday. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

After looking at the latest computer data, it looks like our storm system is slowing down a little bit. This means storms will probably hold off until later Thursday evening and continue into Friday morning. There is a slight risk for severe weather, mainly south of Waco so including Temple and Killeen, as a line of storms is expected to develop along the cold front and advance southeast. The main severe threat looks to be strong winds up to 60 mph and large hail. You can always get the latest look at Tornado Predictor MAX on our weather channel, digital channel 25.3 or Time Warner Cable channel 11.

The other half of the story is the chance for wintry weather for the area. Since the cold air may be delayed, the chance for wintry precipitation is going down. Still cannot rule out some freezing rain and sleet across the northwestern counties but do not expect much for Waco/Temple/Killeen. Travel could be dangerous if you are traveling from the DFW area north into Oklahoma. This area could see a half inch of ice on power lines and trees. That would lead to power outages and slick roads. We will continue to track this storm closely and will have more updates through Friday. – First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

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You remember last week when temperatures were in the 70s and it felt like spring had come early? Mother Nature is going to remind us this week that it is still winter! A very strong cold front will be diving south into the region by Thursday morning. Ahead of the front, we may see a few thunderstorms and brief heavy rain. Behind the front, it is going to turn much, much colder. We are talking about temperatures barely in the 40s for highs on Friday and overnight lows down into the 20s for several mornings. There is also a potential for wintry weather to our north along the Red River, but at this point, we expect the rain to end before temperatures hit the freezing rain. However, any change in the storm path or temperatures could bring the wintry weather closer to Central Texas.

The bottom line is that cold weather is returning so dig the jackets out of the closets and add an extra blanket on the bed. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Rain totals for the end of the week.

We are tracking our next storm system that will bring Central Texas a round of heavy rain starting Thursday and lasting through Saturday. This system is going to be a powerful one and will be using Pacific moisture in the upper levels and Gulf of Mexico moisture at the surface. From the map above, the current forecast calls for 1-3 inches of rain with isolated amounts as high as 4 to 5 inches, especially across parts of the Brazos Valley. No severe weather is expected but there could be a few rumbles of thunder mixed in.

By late Friday into Saturday morning, we will be on the back side of this storm system and temperatures will be cooling off. Some computer models do show us getting to the freezing mark which would lead to a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow. As of right now, no major impacts are expected but if the models trend colder through the week, that is something that might change. You have to consider that we are in the middle of winter and the track of this system is very favorable for winter weather across Texas. We will have updates later this week. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

As the arctic air settles into Central Texas, it is going to stick around well into the weekend. Friday is expected to be the coldest day, especially in the morning. Temperatures will be down into the teens area wide but we will still have a breezy north wind. From the graphic above, that will make it feel like zero to five degrees. Now that is cold! This value is what we call the wind chill. It is what the air feels like to exposed skin. The stronger the wind, the more heat that is taken away from our body, thus it can be very dangerous. We cannot stress enough to make sure and bundle up the next few days and dress in layers.

We are going to be tracking the temperatures for you as we are expected to be below freezing for 36-48 hours. If would like to share how cold it gets at your house or in your car, leave us a comment below or send us a message via Twitter. Our user name is FirstAlert25WX. Stay warm! — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Are you ready for some very cold weather? We have already seen snow and sleet so far this winter and now it is time for bitterly cold temperatures. During the winter months, cold air gathers in Canada, waiting to surge southward into the United States. Sometimes the cold air gets pushed more eastward and we only get a glancing shot. However, this time, Texas will likely get the full brunt of this arctic air mass. Below are the details:

• Timing: Late Wednesday into Thursday will be when the cold air arrives as the cold front blasts through.
• Precipitation: Models still going back and forth on this but we will keep a slight chance for a wintry mix along and behind the cold front.
• Temperatures: As of this weekend’s forecast, we have highs barely getting above freezing by Thursday and Friday and lows in the upper teens Friday morning. On Thursday, wind chills will make it feel like the teens and twenties through the day. There is a good chance parts of the area could go 48 hours straight below freezing.

Now would be a good time to prepare by stocking up on firewood, covering up exposed pipes, and making sure your friends, family, and pets have plenty of warmth for this cold outbreak. We will likely have some changes to the forecast between now and then so stay tuned. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

The National Weather Service has placed parts of Central Texas under a Winter Weather Advisory which is in effect from 9AM Tuesday through 9AM Wednesday. It does include Waco/Temple/Killeen and points west and north. The southern and eastern parts of the area, including Georgetown, the Brazos Valley, and the I-45 corridor will only see a cold rain. The winter mix should start around midday on Tuesday and last into the evening hours. Any major accumulations will be across the northwestern counties from San Saba to Lampasas to Hamilton to Meridian. Just spotty accumulation of sleet and snow is expected for Waco/Temple/Killeen. Travel could be impacted since the ground is much colder now and we could see icy conditions on local bridges and overpasses. Stay tuned for the latest! And don’t forget to send us your winter weather photos by email to weatherpics@kxxv.com. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

As the memories of the Christmas Eve snow fade away, we are tracking our next weather system that will bring us another shot of wintry weather. However, this time around, it looks like more of a sleet/freezing rain event for Central Texas. Timing shows the precipitation starting Tuesday morning and lasting throughout the day. Temperatures will be key on what kind of precipitation we see. If we can manage to stay above freezing, it will just be a cold rain. If we fall below freezing, more of it will be freezing rain and sleet. Do not think we will see snow since the profile of the atmosphere does not look that great for it. This event could cause some travel impacts since we are talking more icy conditions, especially late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. You will want to stay tuned for updates as this event gets closer.

Don’t forget, you can get your forecast 24/7 on Weather Now, digital channel 25.3 or Time Warner Cable channel 11. — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom

Believe it or not, a white Christmas may not be too far away from Central Texas. A powerful storm system will be moving right through the region during the day on Thursday, leading to cold, windy, and possibly snowy conditions. Winter weather advisories are in effect across most of North Central Texas. The heaviest snow will likely be north of us, around the DFW area and along I-20. So if you traveling that way for the holidays, please be careful and allow for extra travel time. The winds are also going to be a problem, gusting up to 50 mph, making the snow look more like a blizzard and making it feel like the teens when you factor in the wind chill values. If we do see any kind of snow here in Central Texas, we would love to see it. Just email us your photos to weatherpics@kxxv.com. I hope everyone has a Merry Christmas! — First Alert 25 Meteorologist Conley Isom